Why are Phosphorus Prices Spiking (again)?

Once again, the current phosphorus system has demonstrated its extreme vulnerability to dramatic price volatility and supply chain disruptions. In just four weeks, the price of phosphorus fertilizers has risen 5–10%.¹

Geopolitical instability exacerbates these flaws, and this is not the first time such chaos has ensued on the global phosphorus market. The 1973 oil crisis caused a three-fold increase in phosphate prices. The 2009 global recession experienced a rise by almost 200%, while uncertainty following the COVID pandemic and Russian Ukraine War intensified a 150% spike.²

Each of these price hikes endured for years, not days or weeks. The conclusion of market-altering political events will not simply correct these changes overnight. Phosphorus in agriculture is a capital-intensive physical commodity, constrained to time-limited use-cases with various seasonal demands all over the world. 

Despite this global use, 20% of the world’s phosphorus fertilizers come from the Strait of Hormuz.³ Half of the world’s sulfur (required in phosphoric acid processing) originates from the Middle East.⁴ Sulfur prices are up 50% since Operation Epic Fury.⁵ Natural Gas (used to produce ammonia and downstream urea for DAP and MAP phosphate fertilizers) is also significantly stifled as 20–30% of global fertilizer exports pass through the Straight.⁶ Agriculture is not carried out in an extempore manner, so inputs should be de-risked to maintain stability and increase resilience to shock. 

The current phosphorus supply chain is too reliant on finite mines, located in select geographies, and controlled by a limited number of large-scale legacy players. To say bluntly, the phosphorus system is unprepared for the world’s inevitable times of trouble.

This past November, the U.S. added phosphate to its Critical Minerals List. However, unlike oil, we don’t have any sort of plan for a strategic stockpile. This isn’t something the Federal Reserve can fix either. Global demand is inevitably going to rise for phosphate fertilizers, and rising populations necessitate improved and reliable crop yields to sustain growth. Aside from the supply issues of dealing with a finite material, trying to maintain such a linear industry doesn’t leave room for disruptions. 

No matter the scale, agriculture works best when growers can mitigate risk. Inputs should be reliable, cost-effective, environmentally sound, and locally sourced. Unfortunately for the majority of US growers, phosphorus is none of these.

Footnote Citations:

1.  University of Illinois Extension Farmdoc. (2026). Partners, lawmakers seek fertilizer price transparency amid rising costs. Agriculture.com. https://www.agriculture.com/partners-lawmakers-seek-fertilizer-price-transparency-amid-rising-costs-11932062

2.  FRED Index WPU065202

3.  Nigh, V. (2026). Fertilizer and the Middle East Conflict. The Fertilizer Institute. https://www.tfi.org/wp-contet/uploads/2026/03/Fertilizer-and-the-Middle-East-Conflict-2.pdf

4.  S&P Global. (2026). Sulfur, nitrogen markets under pressure as Middle East war persists. S&P Global Commodity Insights. https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/031926-sulfur-nitrogen-markets-under-pressure-as-middle-east-war-persists-analysts

5.  The Soufan Center. (2026, March 25). The Iran War: A crisis for the defense industrial base now too. IntelBrief. https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-march-25/

6.  Glauber, J. (2026). The Iran war: Potential food security impacts. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-war-potential-food-security-impacts/

The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author.